The Decline of Text Messaging?

I received this written message from a friend of mine on my iPhone, "Wanna go to the Saucer and grab a beer?" This is a standard message I'm sure many people see quite often, but this came through the messaging system on Words with Friends (a popular iPhone app). While responding to his rhetorical question with another rhetorical question, "Is the Pope Catholic?" I pondered the future of text messaging. Text messaging, also known as SMS or short messaging service, is described in wikipedia as "most often used between private mobile phone users, as a substitute for voice calls in situations where voice communication is impossible or undesirable."

Since the first quarter of 2008, Americans as a whole were sending and receiving more text messages a day than phone calls, I guess meaning there are a lot of situations in life where voice communication is impossible or undesirable. In 2008, the total text messages sent by Americans was reported to be 1 trillion or a little over 13 messages per day per wireless customer. This is up from 363 billion messages sent a year prior. Text Messaging accounted for $32 billion in revenue for wireless carriers in 2008, but this latest message from a friend of mine had me wondering if text messaging had hit it's peak and will we see a slow decline with the advent of social media networks, emails, and messaging systems on apps?

This was not the first time I had pondered this and I have to give all the credit to my step-father who postulated the idea a year earlier in a conversation over a tobacco pipe and beer on the back porch together (most of my great conversations happen over a pipe and beer I've found). He had one of the first generation iPhones and did not have a text messaging plan. When asked why he didn't, he responded with, "What do I need it for? I receive emails just as fast as I would receive a text message and I can put everything and more into an email that I can into a text message." He's right.

But when I think of emails, I think of something more formal than a text. To me an email is something a little more professional, but he did spark my interest with the idea. What exactly does a text message provide? Using the standard iPhone platform, I think everyone would agree that a text message is a quick, easy, and informal way to compose a message to one or a few friends. The message can be a quick question, invitation, status update, and accompanied by a picture or popular picture icon from services like emoji.

I, like many other people, have a facebook, linkedin, myspace, and twitter user name. To add to that, I have a business email, personal email, and junk email address. Some people may have more than these and some may have less, but the fact remains there are many ways to communicate with my friends other than a text message. And all of these give me greater flexibility and ability to reach a larger audience than a text.

There has to be an incentive for people to stop using text messaging, and the one I'd like to point out is the financial one. For my wife and I, the unlimited family text plan costs $30/month with AT&T. The data plan which I would use for everything (minus texting) costs an additional $30/month. If we were to give up texting, we would save $360 a year. My prediction is that as more and more of these grow, the less and less popular text messaging will become. I don't see it happening this year, but if a tight economy continues, look for innovative ways of consumers to cut costs on duplicated services in 2011.